Are Romanian Banks about to fall?
While everybody points towards Eastern Europe banking problems, as a romanian businessman, so far I did not notice any problem locally. The only think I am worried is the rise in deposits interest rate – around 15-20% per month. So far, my companies did not have any problems with payments, while in regards with credit – I always hated credit and choose to develop organically, none of my companies has any credit.
But from my information, companies do not have problems because of credits, except the ones involved in real estate. The real problem is the drop in exports that cuts productions and also some delay in payments from others.
I am surprised to see that everybody points to Eastern Europe as the prime area of Europe. I do not know what is the status in other countries, but in Romania banks are ok, credit unsolvency is low and cash-flow of banks does not show any sign of problems. This might be due to the very strict policy of Romanian National Bank, but also to the economic growth from last year and the potential of private deposits to support the need for liquidities.
As the credit, indeed is almost dead, but not everbody works on credit, so the local “reset” can only be beneficial in medium/long term.
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